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Category: Morning Note

Everything Will Change

Good Morning, First, the reactions around the country over the weekend to the gut-wrenching and terrible circumstances surrounding Mr. Floyd’s death is heartbreaking to watch. I was in Chicago this…

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Post Covid-19?

Good Evening, We sure hope you and yours are set to enjoy a wonderful, safe, fun and healthy weekend. As much as the constant flow of news, statistics and fearful…

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On The Run 2

Good Morning, We sure hope you and yours had a wonderful, safe, fun and healthy weekend. The kick-off to summer is underway….as that hazy period apporaches. The high speed frequency…

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The Kick-Off

Good Afternoon, First, we wish you and yours a safe, healthy and enjoyable Memorial Day Weekend. Welcome to the often-assumed kick-off to summer. The expected rest in the market did…

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Bat on The Run

Good Morning, You recall the legions of “it’ll never get better…”, or “we may never get back to normal…”, or “it takes years to solve these problems…” naysayers. Make sure…

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Technicals & Sentiment

Good Morning, So, here we are – having reach the upper edge of the “range” we had suggested it appeared the markets were likely to form given the calendar, we…

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Bigger Question(s)?

Good Morning, There are a few things we need to recognize – in my humble opinion – which may help to lend a little clarity to what we are all…

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Interruptions

Good Morning, Sell in May and go away got a strong start – but in our view should dissipate fairly soon. As noted for a couple weeks in advance –…

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Beyond The Clouds

Good Morning, Somewhere in the months and quarters ahead, we are set to find that a reassuring fact remains tested again – but true: A pessimist on the future of…

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The Toughest Part

Good Morning, Someday, maybe many years from now, there may be a lesson finally learned that “shooting first and asking questions later” is a foolish pathway for investing. Yes, sometimes…

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Additional Articles

Chop and Then – Boom

“Face reality as it is, not as it was or as you wish it to be.”

– Jack Welch

Good Morning,

Yawn.  That was the sensation after the Fed statement yesterday.  I was laughing a bit as I watched the myriad of reporters questioning Fed Chair Powell after the statement was released.  One could almost feel the distinct letdown as each question failed to create the “zinger” everyone seemed to be hoping for in his responses.  You know, the one where Powell makes some big error and the narrative can shift to the “see, we told you we were all knowing and that he has been hiding this monster all along…”

I really loved this quick headline afterward as markets “plunged” 47 basis points lower – 48 hours after setting all-time-new-highs:

“Gold, Gold Miners turn red after Fed raises inflation expectations…”

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Traders Lose

“It’s not so important who starts the game, but who finished it.”

– John Wooden

Good Morning,

What a summer, huh?  I mean – wow.  Stunning, enlightening, stressful, boring, edgy.  Oh wait, it’s only two weeks old.  Sorry – early.

Ok, I am kidding.  Here is what I am not kidding about:  Traders lose – almost all of the time.  The effort to interact with a myriad of stimuli, in a reactive, emotional state, against some of the best in the business – with A.I. machines and algorithms to boot – is not a game I choose to play.  Neither should you.

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Slow and Hazy

Choppy may be the only productive theme for the next several weeks.  As covered repeatedly, the long-term is set to surprise many – for a long time – to the upside. However, it is summer – and I suspect we need to recognize that for what it is in the near-term. The only exciting thing – unless that media builds another monster for us in the coming weeks (which it easily could) – is that by the 20th of July, the Q2 earnings season will have begun.  Each week that goes by, the YOY increase in expectations for those numbers rises

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Much Higher

As you settle in for official “summer weekend number one”, I thought it might be interesting to take a look back to gain a sense of what’s ahead.  I will keep this simple – with several pictures so those cold summer drinks can go down easier – and you my friend, can relax.

First, the bad stuff:  more chop, more angst, more nervous periods, more corrections and more trade ranges are ahead.  Count on it as much as you can count on the sun rising each morning.   The good news about the bad news is this:  there is nothing new in the previous sentence.  We have been dealing with chop, angst, corrections, recessions, plunges and trade ranges since the beginning of time.

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Running Away

While everyone was giving thanks to those who have protected the foundations of our freedoms, every indication highlights that there was much movement around the country, unlike last year at this time.

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From The Top Down

This week, like all previous Memorial Day weekend build-up weeks, likely sees a slowing level of volume coming into the markets.  Don’t fret – it is normal.  Volume will continue to fall into June in all likelihood

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