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Category: Morning Note

Bear Herding

“The man who is a bear on the future of the United States will always go broke.” – J.P. Morgan Good Morning, Well, there you go – the first 5…

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Your Default Setting?

“The man who is a bear on the future of the United States will always go broke.” – J.P. Morgan Good Morning, We expect the Holiday Haze to slowly wear…

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China Who?

Good Morning, My Dad always told me “no rest for the weary….” Hilarious – it’s only January 3 and the latest”existential” monsteris roughly 24 hours old already! Forget China –…

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Into The Darkness

Above all else, we want to wish you and yours a wonderful, healthy, safe, prosperous and Very, Very Happy New Year. Good Morning! As covered for many months now, 2020…

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Stop Watching

“Individuals who cannot master their emotions are
ill-suited to profit from the investment process.”
~ Benjamin Graham

Good Morning,

Another week – another failed Armageddon.

An idea to share today:  stop watching the garbage called “financial news.”

Seriously.  During the summer haze, it is a great time to learn what helps and what does not help.  Ask yourself this question.  Which “it’s the end of the financial and economic world as we know it” story has been correct over, say, the last 40 years?  And when I say “correct”, I mean which thing that we were told – for certain, by a parade of experts – was indeed the end of the world, with no recovery and new highs ahead.

The answer is – none.  Not a single one was correct for more than a short window of time.  That is a pretty bad record.  As such, why in the world would we keep reacting to it?

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Summer Mirage

“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow.

If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.”

— Paul Samuelson

Good Afternoon,

This week has surely done its job of testing everyone’s patience.  Prices “plunged”, according to CNBC, on Monday – and the day was filled with experts giving all parties lots of reasons for “why it happened.”  Two days later, those reasons seem to have mysteriously been overridden by something else.

As soon as they can figure out how markets returning, basically, to where we started the week is also bad for you – then more will be shared by these experts.

Our Thoughts?

A review of the June morning notes will show that July is almost always choppy after a “big up” in the first half of a year.  This was covered before the Delta variant became the newest reason we are told Covid will never end.  Now, Delta V captures most of the headlines describing why everything “is bad.”

Our message for investors is a little different – it isn’t all bad.

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“Peak”

“Never bet on the end of the world, It only happens once.”

~Anonymous

Good Morning,

I owe you an apology – I didn’t get a morning note out all last week due to travel, so I will catch up today.

It wasn’t because little was going on – it was just nothing really important nor anything we hadn’t already covered.

Economic data – better.  Inflation – another false monster.  Earnings – overwhelming analysts.  Delta – the latest scare tactic.

By the way, the 10-year is down to 1.225% this morning – or 81 times earnings.

The title today – “Peak” – will be heard a whole bunch in the next few weeks as earnings flood in.  We recently pointed out that numbers are going to get so shockingly good, that we will likely see “selling the news” even more.  Last week proved that out as well.

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A Lesson in Battle

“My favorite things in life don’t cost any money.

It’s really clear that the most precious resource we all have is time.”

– Steve Jobs

Good Morning,

The excuse of the day for the red ink and the “sudden” change of direction is apparently related to bond yields.  The experts are all over the media this morning.  They are telling you that it is bad news that rates are falling.  There is a myriad of reasons they are attaching to this “fall” as the triggers of what we should fear next.

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Seeing Through The Darkness

“Boy, can you make folks feel what you feel inside?
‘Cause if you’re big star bound let me warn ya, it’s a long, hard ride”

“The Ride” – David Allan Coe

Good Morning,

Thankfully, we still have most of the summer ahead of us.  Comeback records were set on travel this past week.  Expect more – so long as we can take on the media battle with the Delta variant capturing more and more headlines.  There is even a newer one capturing headlines this past weekend.  It is the Lambda variant.  Follow your doctors orders of course – always – but as promised, we can expect that volume to keep getting higher – as more and more head to the beach.  We covered this last week as a likely driver of chop (read: rest) for markets in July.

Idea of benefit:  Focus on the beach  : )

I like today’s quote above.  It comes from a song called “The Ride” and that last line is really what drives home the point.  I have learned a few things in the almost 39 years I have been blessed to serve clients in this profession.  The line in the song sticks with me each time I hear it.  Why?  It seems to me that anything that you will appreciate accomplishing in life, anything that will mean a great deal to you and yours – is, indeed, a long, hard ride.

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Happy July 4th Weekend

“Have great hopes and dare to go all out for them. Have great dreams and dare to live them.

Have tremendous expectations and believe in them.”

Norman Vincent Peale

Good Afternoon,

Just a quick note to send you and yours our best wishes for a wonderful, safe, relaxing and Happy 4th of July weekend!

Take in the summer and enjoy much time with family and friends.

When I get a free moment, I am going to ponder how far we have come from a year ago.  What a trip is has been for sure.

I am going to remember how confusing and stressful those first few weeks of the pandemic were.  I am going think back, yes – but only for a brief moment.

I will do so to be excited about how far we have come – together.  I am going to feel pride in how all of us in this country worked together, through thick and thin, to overcome a compelling monster.

As I peer through the haze of the summer ahead and patiently await the next acceleration phase as summer comes to a close, these thoughts will march forth, overcoming all the senseless chatter we must endure:

No matter how hard you punch America, she comes back stronger than before.

No matter what negative force is unleashed upon us, we fight hard to recover and move to higher ground as a team.

No matter how stressful it seems at times – we never, ever – ever – give up.

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