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Category: Morning Note

Proper Focus

Good Morning, First – the bad news to get it out of the way. While the number of cases of the coronavirus noted from China seems like a scary number…

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Monsters

Good Morning, Ah well, don’t shoot the messenger please. The market – for long-term investors – needed a rest, a reset. Consider the idea that we are visiting a needed…

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Correction – Please?

Good Morning, Call me nutty – but I get nervous when things “feel better” – which I am unfortunately hearing a lot these days – but only if speaking about…

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Buckle Up

“The man who is a bear on the future of the United States will always go broke.” – J.P. Morgan Good Morning, “In preparation for our descent into XYZ, please…

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Bear Herding

“The man who is a bear on the future of the United States will always go broke.” – J.P. Morgan Good Morning, Well, there you go – the first 5…

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Your Default Setting?

“The man who is a bear on the future of the United States will always go broke.” – J.P. Morgan Good Morning, We expect the Holiday Haze to slowly wear…

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China Who?

Good Morning, My Dad always told me “no rest for the weary….” Hilarious – it’s only January 3 and the latest”existential” monsteris roughly 24 hours old already! Forget China –…

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Into The Darkness

Above all else, we want to wish you and yours a wonderful, healthy, safe, prosperous and Very, Very Happy New Year. Good Morning! As covered for many months now, 2020…

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Additional Articles

Fueling Up

“Train yourself to let go of everything you fear to lose.” 

— Yoda

Good Afternoon,

I will keep this one short today – with a focus on sentiment.

The expected history of September has not disappointed.  Chop and churn has been the name of the game.  Seems like good news is just not good news anymore – no matter where you look.  All of last week down – and this week has been up and down the entire time.

If, by chance, you are feeling any stress about this – I have 4 words for you:  snap out of it, soon.

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Like Pounding Sand

“Based on my own personal experience – both as an investor in recent years and an expert witness in years past – rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.”

~Martin Whitman

 

Good Afternoon,

The summer haze is taking its time in clearing.  Volumes remain lower than normal and air pockets are evident as seen yesterday and on Friday.  The “concerns” are flying in the headlines as we go from one problem to another.  The milli-second that the inflation data came in lighter than expected, overnight retail sales data from China came in very light as well.

This morning, bright and early, the headlines were filled with the “Slowdown in China” and any stock selling anything retail in China is getting shellacked today.  Classic examples of the mental mayhem which takes place as markets wait for the real data that moves elements along.

There, I am afraid we will watch these antics until we get to the later stages of September and early October.  Then, we will have set the stage exactly as a long-term investor would prefer it:  kicking off the next earnings season with very low expectations and concerns about the ability to continue forward.  This tends to be vastly better than rallying with excitement into the opening days of Q3 reports.

A Review

As we covered throughout summer, trade ranges serve a purpose.  They build a foundation for what’s next.  The longer they last and get tested, the better the breakout is afterward.   This summer, while no significant “swoon” was forced upon us, the internal churn was evident for anyone watching.

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Swan Dive

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it.

He who doesn’t, pays it.”

— Albert Einstein

Good Morning,

I mean he wasn’t the sharpest nail in the drawer but heck, he had some good quotes : )

Seriously, hope you had a great weekend as the summer haze is just about officially burned off.

Back to the grind as they say – and wow is this mountain ahead a big one.  May indeed be one for the record books as it unfolds.  The media was all over the “come back from summer” opening week, with markets down all 5 days and an ugly flurry into the finish late Friday afternoon.

The headlines were almost comical at times:

“Market Dives for 5 Days Straight”

“Selling Defies Effort to Reverse Market Tailspin”

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“Dusted”

“The best way to measure your investing success is not by whether you’re beating the market but by whether you’ve put in place a financial plan and a behavioral discipline that are likely to get you where you want to go.”

~Benjamin Graham

Good Morning,

I am always amazed over my nearly 40 years at this, when I watch periods of time when so much stress and angst is being felt while the fundamental data shatters records.

The latest?  JOLTs – the job openings report that is akin to the back-order pipeline in the world of manufacturing and heavy industry.  Record job openings suggest record future investment and Capex.   Well guess what?  The latest JOLTs report is a record-setter for sure.

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Hidden in The Shadows

“Once you start down the dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny. Consume you, it will.”

– Yoda

 

Good Morning,

Hey – we made it!  We got through the perilous, dangerous, chilling, hazardous, risk-filled summer of 2021.  Now, we face the perilous, dangerous, chilling, hazardous, risk-filled last 4 months of 2021.  You get the drift.

Nothing changes on this pathway from the media’s perspective.  There will be no good news.  There will be no “let up” is “the dangers facing us.”  Good Lord, they are all starting to blend together.  Re-read the opening quote today – it will help.

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Happy Labor Day

“The biggest risk of all is not taking one.”  — Mellody Hobson   Good Morning, Just a quick note from all of us to you and yours:  Happy Labor Day…

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