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Category: Morning Note

Upside Surprises

“Games are won by players who focus on the playing field –- not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard.”
― Warren Buffett

Good Morning,

As the summer wears down its’ hazy pathway, the regularly-feared monsters will come and go.  Interest rates, inflation, oil costs, housing shortages, variants and vaccine reactions will come and go.  Heck, you can be assured that even good news will be cloaked as bad news.  I’ll give you an example:

“Lines create significant delays for security checkpoints as airports overwhelmed with return to summer travel.”

I don’t know where we collectively decided that we would feed a system that would deliver us strife and stress all the time – but we did.  You’d be amazed how well you feel the world is doing when you stop watching the news feed.   I digress.

The Numbers

I’ll keep it short this week as many will be working all week to plan on leaving work for the second long weekend of the summer.  The July 4th break likely starts about mid-week for most – LOL.  If you fall into that category, we wish you the best of the long summer weekend with family and friends.

Continuing their climb up the mountain, earnings numbers look solid.  It is all somewhat imaginary as one can be assured, the numbers will come up short overall as analysts continue their tepid acceptance that the pandemic completely reshaped the economy’s operations.  Margins are set to surprise as that onion is peeled.

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Too Sentiment-al

“Fear incites human action far more urgently than does the impressive weight of historical evidence.”

-Jeremy Siegel

Good Morning,

The title today is all about sentiment.  It is as such because I feel this will be vital as the summer haze seeps deeper and deeper into our minds.  Heck, after last year’s pandemic shutdown summer, by mid-August this year, you may never want to go back to work.

The point?  Read the quote above one more time.  Should we expect chop here and there during the summer months?  You bet.  Indeed, we should be excited if we are lucky enough to get a gut-churning mini-meltdown.  Pray for it – and then embrace it as a launch pad for a significant run afterward.

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Chop and Then – Boom

“Face reality as it is, not as it was or as you wish it to be.”

– Jack Welch

Good Morning,

Yawn.  That was the sensation after the Fed statement yesterday.  I was laughing a bit as I watched the myriad of reporters questioning Fed Chair Powell after the statement was released.  One could almost feel the distinct letdown as each question failed to create the “zinger” everyone seemed to be hoping for in his responses.  You know, the one where Powell makes some big error and the narrative can shift to the “see, we told you we were all knowing and that he has been hiding this monster all along…”

I really loved this quick headline afterward as markets “plunged” 47 basis points lower – 48 hours after setting all-time-new-highs:

“Gold, Gold Miners turn red after Fed raises inflation expectations…”

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Traders Lose

“It’s not so important who starts the game, but who finished it.”

– John Wooden

Good Morning,

What a summer, huh?  I mean – wow.  Stunning, enlightening, stressful, boring, edgy.  Oh wait, it’s only two weeks old.  Sorry – early.

Ok, I am kidding.  Here is what I am not kidding about:  Traders lose – almost all of the time.  The effort to interact with a myriad of stimuli, in a reactive, emotional state, against some of the best in the business – with A.I. machines and algorithms to boot – is not a game I choose to play.  Neither should you.

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Slow and Hazy

Choppy may be the only productive theme for the next several weeks.  As covered repeatedly, the long-term is set to surprise many – for a long time – to the upside. However, it is summer – and I suspect we need to recognize that for what it is in the near-term. The only exciting thing – unless that media builds another monster for us in the coming weeks (which it easily could) – is that by the 20th of July, the Q2 earnings season will have begun.  Each week that goes by, the YOY increase in expectations for those numbers rises

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Much Higher

As you settle in for official “summer weekend number one”, I thought it might be interesting to take a look back to gain a sense of what’s ahead.  I will keep this simple – with several pictures so those cold summer drinks can go down easier – and you my friend, can relax.

First, the bad stuff:  more chop, more angst, more nervous periods, more corrections and more trade ranges are ahead.  Count on it as much as you can count on the sun rising each morning.   The good news about the bad news is this:  there is nothing new in the previous sentence.  We have been dealing with chop, angst, corrections, recessions, plunges and trade ranges since the beginning of time.

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Running Away

While everyone was giving thanks to those who have protected the foundations of our freedoms, every indication highlights that there was much movement around the country, unlike last year at this time.

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From The Top Down

This week, like all previous Memorial Day weekend build-up weeks, likely sees a slowing level of volume coming into the markets.  Don’t fret – it is normal.  Volume will continue to fall into June in all likelihood

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Edge of The Haze

Good Morning, We have covered this now for a bit.  Indeed, the trade range often mentioned is doing almost exactly what you want it to do.  It is making the…

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Smoked

Good Morning, The immense level of fear, seemingly missing the bigger picture unfolding in front of us, is rising as we type.  The indications of this are pretty much across…

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Additional Articles

Lights Out

“What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history.” ~Warren Buffett   Good Morning, Don’t mind me – that noise you hear in the background is me…

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Happy Thanksgiving to You and Yours

It is that wonderful time of year – a time for family and friends.   We send our very best wishes to you and yours for the highest of blessings this…

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It’s All Around Us

“Those who are not grateful soon begin to complain of everything.”

Thomas Merton

Good Morning.

Once again, sending along heartfelt wishes to you and yours for the very best of blessings on this Thanksgiving Holiday.  God knows, we all deserve it given the last nearly 24 months of confusion.  We send our best to you and again thank you for the opportunity to be of service.

Know that as 2022 beckons, we will work consistently for your interests.  We are grateful for the opportunity – and as always, patience will be the toughest part of the game as we let what is unfolding all around us continue to expand the horizon ahead.

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Happy Holiday Week!

“The investor’s chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself”

~Benjamin Graham

Good Morning!

Before we start into the boring stuff, we want to send our heartfelt wishes to you and yours for the most blessed and enjoyable Holiday Season.  Kicking off this week with Thanksgiving, we want to give thanks to you – as always – for the opportunity to be of service to you.  We are always extremely grateful and enjoy this time of year because we get to tell you that again LOL.

Have a fantastic week with Family and Friends!

And now…to the boring stuff

I know it’s boring because we keep having to tell how records are being set.  Yes, there will be a pause in here somewhere.  Yes, there will be a short window in the pathway ahead where you will swear market investments stink.  It will all be a required part of the pathway that is laid out in front of us all.  Like it or not, our economy is going to running at full tilt for an awfully long time.

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Fever Breaking?

“The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.”

~Warren Buffett

Good Morning,

Closing out the Q3 earnings season has become a bit boring in its coverage.  My sense of things?  The media could find few monsters in a string of reports that consistently beat estimates, even as the “inflation war” rages on.  I suppose they realized the “scary stuff” needed to come from somewhere else, hence – yet another record-setting earnings season is quietly put to rest.

Expect more records – with a pause here and there along the way.

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Our Thanks

How do you say thanks for the things they have done? What words would sufficiently honor their bravery and sacrifice? What letter could we write to thank them for stepping…

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