“The greater the obstacle, the more glory in overcoming it.” – Moliere
First, we want to wish you and your family a Blessed, safe and healthy Thanksgiving Week.
Good Lord, we all know how glad we are to see this week arrive in such an incredibly strenuous year. Together, we will all overcome and learn much. We send along our prayers for the very best of the Season for safety, for healing, for family time and friends.
We give you sincere thanks for allowing us to be of service to you and yours and are eternally grateful to serve you and work with you and yours as the future arrives and goals are steadily met over time.
So, the Holiday Haze is upon us….but in a year of so much change and concern, it may not feel exactly that way all over the country. The good news?
(Broken record warning): America and her people – together – are in the business of overcoming. History proves that the larger the setbacks, the more significant a comeback/recovery America builds. There is no keeping us down. There is no time when we did not succeed in leaving an obstacle on the side of the road as we collectively raced successfully into the future.
We – America – is in the business of leading, building, excelling, learning, creating and moving on better than we were before…and friends, business is good.
In the last few morning notes we have provided on-going data showing the massive upswing in the improving economic landscape around us. The darker it seemed – the better we improved. Now – vaccines are being announced on a regular basis – three Monday’s in a row now. We said long ago: “As dark as it may seem now, the odds are very high that within months we will have a veritable menu of vaccines to choose from as we overcome and defeat this bat out of hell.”
Patience friends…with an ample sprinkle of discipline and Faith is what causes this country to succeed. It is why – still – we live in the only land on this planet where people will risk their lives to get too.
So Now…Another Lesson
I will keep things light this week as we all prepare for time with family, friends, thankfulness and prayers for the better future ahead.
You have often heard these notes echo themes. Imagine that – me being repetitive. Good Lord. Anyway – one of those themes has been the weakness we all have embedded in our psyches. Emotions. They come to the game at the very worst of times. They arrive ill-prepared for effective decision-making in times of great stress. They cause the most expensive mistakes known to any investor – over time.
Often, it is hard to show that “effect” – but now, thanks to tech – we can – sort of. Bear with me and let’s review together.
Take serious note of the data in the image above. It makes two assumptions – for every day – going back to the end of 1992. Here are those two assumptions:
a) in the green line, one bought the close of the S&P 500 every single day – and then sold on the very next opening tick.
b) in the red line, the same trader’s darker half bought the opening price – every single day – and then sold on the closing tick of the same day.
The green line results – well – shatter those of the red line actions. Indeed, the data are not even. We could argue they are not even in the same city – much less the same ballpark.
What is the difference?
–>>>> News…or worse – one’s reaction to it.
You see – in the night hours, you are sleeping. It is very difficult to react to or do battle with your worst enemy (your emotions) when you are not paying attention to the garbage – sorry – uhhh – news.
It is highly unlikely that green line trader sat up all night and reacted to every piece of news that came down the ticker. Indeed, it is vastly more likely that they ignored the news – and slept instead.
On the other hand, those in the heat of the battle “during trading hours”, were defeated in their assumptions, reactions, timing and opinion-searching over and over and over again.
Over the “long haul”, the record is miserable…and sadly, also supports this long-standing reality below…it is inward lurking – not outward:
So – let’s focus again on the red and green lines. How does one capture the benefit of the green overtime?
Simple – don’t ever do what the red line data tracks.
By default – you end up “in the green” as they say.
Simple? Ha ha – not on your life.
It means taking all the crap – and staying on your pathway through the good as well as perilous times. Your emotions will not guide you through the storm. We all suffer weaknesses. Our job is to help clients not do battle with their greatest weaknesses. Don’t fret – we all have them. We just have to focus on this:
The underlying current of massive strength and benefit headed our way…
…and NOT the waves in all the storms that will most assuredly cross our path on the journey.
√ Give Thanks my friends…we will get through this because that is what we do.
√ The sun’s rays are just over the horizon.
√ While many will let fear and worry take them off their rightful rewarding pathway ahead, over the long haul, we can be confident that what is headed our way are our best decades.
It’s the kick off to the Holidays. We send you and yours our best and are grateful to serve.
Don’t fret…stand tall in the storm – and look forward, above the noise – not back and into the fog-shrouded dust heap of the past.
This rocket-ship ride is just getting fueled up for the trip – even now in the midst of all of this…we are set for collective good years together like none in history – no matter the politics of it all.
Long-term investors have learned that when all of the above ingredients are baked into the pie, the road ahead has been marked by a clear and resounding message:
…surprises to the upside.
It is our job to withstand the assured storms ahead and be disciplined in our planning for clients’ goals.
Sure, more choppy waters are likely as the future unfolds.
The media will do their best to knock you off your focus, grabbing at your fears, stabbing at the ghosts in the back of one’s mind and working to take you off your pathway.
Focus your mind on rising above this tension and angst instead – as we all succeed together…
It is set in stone with The Barbell Economy®.
Pull your seatbelt tighter and hold on to your popcorn.
Exciting things are dead ahead.
Enjoy Your Week – The Holidays Are Here
Please Stay Safe & Healthy
We are here to help always, even if just to talk.
Until we see you again, may your journey be grand – and your legacy significant.