You recall the legions of “it’ll never get better…”, or “we may never get back to normal…”, or “it takes years to solve these problems…” naysayers.
Make sure you burn that “absurdness” into your memory, coming from all those who wanted you to remain terrified for a very, very long time. Be confident that it will serve you well for the monsters to come and the never-ending stream from the sellers of fear. Also – as proven, do not underestimate their success in selling you fear.
Days Are Numbered….
As with life itself, the days are numbered for this bat out of hell. The news hitting the wires over the weekend and in headlines this morning tell you that the virus is on the run:
A further read of the details of the report shows that ALL recipients of the test produced antibodies at or above those seen in people who have actually had the illness and recovered. Incredible – and promising.
Remember our discussions of bridges early in this latest crisis.
What we have been witnessing for the last 10 weeks (yes, I know it feels like 10 years) was all about building bridges to the next place on our collective journey. We covered often that Americans and the US economy in particular are far more adaptive than most “experts” care to ever give credit.
While all the kids have been learning from home – we too have had a good lesson over the last 10-12 weeks. Once that can stay with us for decades.
Throughout the process, once again we have all (hopefully) had a good lesson on how much easier it is for a crowd to buy into the “terribles” and is far more reticent to have Faith in the positives.
One sounds far more intelligent than the other.
It sounds smarter to tell you about all the things you should be afraid of and how much damage those elements will do to you – and all of us – in the future – forever.
We must learn – that America – including all of us as a country, as a team of citizens living in a free society – is always able to think, create and redefine elements enabling our ability to overcome and rebuild even better….
An innate gift – which in the end, cannot be beaten over time.
That takes a deep-seeded Faith – a logic – a constant desire to move forward no matter how ugly it might be right this moment. That my friends is why – still – even after the latest monster – people from all over the world will do anything – to get here.
No other country on Earth can say that – so we must remain grateful for these forces as we continue to see science, technology, massive brain-power and AI intelligence continue to hunt this virus down into its own oblivion.
The very, very good news? The extremely powerful and long-lasting forces brewing under the surface, driving us forward — that underlying current we keep making you aware of – is only present in the United States economy.
Hey, the road ahead is still all about rebuilding, replenishing, redefining and recovering. But in this too – we will succeed at doing – far more effectively, and in much less time, than all of the naysaying experts’ soundbites would define for you.
Recall markets consider “better or worse” while humans tends to think in terms of “bad or good”. Humans tend to get lost in the path of now, where markets look into next – the flight of the future. All of these powers are coming together – in full force.
Just also remember that, while there is much work to still do – when this monster is vanquished, when the last nail in the coffin has been hammered…be assured from somewhere out in left field, from a place we will not be looking – a new monster will arise.
A new concern will evolve and it will be much, much scarier.
We will hear about debt implosion, rates skyrocketing and inflation burning down out financial houses. We will hear it in ebbs and flows. It too shall be false in the end as America continues to step forward – beyond these hurdles.
One last thing on this global power front:
It may help your concerns to put to rest the chatter – going on for years – that somehow China controls our destiny “because they own a trillion dollars of our debt….”
The Fed has sold more than that this month. China needs to be indebted to us because of trade mechanisms.
The alternative? We stop sending all the business to China – and eventually, they shrink to levels shocking to most.
Recall that China now has more people over 80 and under 10 years of age. Soon, given the 28-year long one child policy, they will literally almost run out of people in their 30’s. Ouch.
Look for massive comeback in the US manufacturing sector as supply chains are drawn, like a magnet to the strongest economy on Earth for the New Economy ahead.
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Some Helpful Snapshots
Look, the Moderna news does not “end” this process. It is a step in the process of ending the storm and moving beyond.
No, it is not “all over.”
Yes – it is a good step….
Yes, many work items remain.
Many hurdles still need to be overcome.
Yes not all 30MM jobs will “come back” in their old form
More than what was “lost” in one area – will come back in “new areas”
The reality is that the “Decades of Disruption” we discussed at many points during 2019 as we prepped for the 2020’s and 2030’s opportunities – have indeed arrived. The virus out of left field merely sped up (significantly) the shift of the 4th Revolution of Change as our economy becomes even more powerful, morphing us all into the New World, the New Economy ahead.
The bad news?
Even as I type, Andrew Ross Sorkin has already, live on CNBC, is defining the new things we “have to be concerned about as the pricing of the Moderna vaccine will surely have much global pressure….” Forgive me but the investor audience needs this guy removed from a microphone.
I digress….back to the charts friends.
The latest bearish sentiment data show that we have arrived at a level of consecutive weekly fear readings at the 4th highest level of all time. Imagine that —
Further, as you might guess, the bearishness is also influenced by demographics:
The second chart above shows the bull/bear difference has now reached epic levels as well. All of this – along with the data shared last week, suggests we MUST remain focused on the long haul. In time, we will look back on this window of deep-seeded fear and find that the patient investor – won.
Recall, in just the last few weeks, crude oil has gone from “we will never find a place for all the oil…” to popping over $30/barrel as driving data continue to improve. Again – better or worse is the theme.
Don’t Get Stuck in a Bubble
The very saddest of elements we must deal with is that during the lockdown, millions and millions have been sitting home – and what? Watching the news…
And the worst thing in the world for the long-term investor? Watching the news…
Here are a few things you will not see on the news…
…read ’em and reap…
Latest Items of Importance…
Chart 1 from Calafia – gasoline demand is up nicely – and not a long distance away from previous “lower range readings.
Chart 2 shows an interesting read from Apple data – driving is up – and indeed the most recent peak in the recovering data almost reached the lows seen in the right side of the chart. Not too shabby.
Chart 3 shows us that internal conditions are improving and are now ABOVE the lows seen in 1998, 2003 and 2011 bumps in the road.
Last but surely not least….guess where all that panicky search for cash went in the middle of the COVID waterfall sell-off.
Yep – into the bank. Note that consumers now have almost $18 TRILLION dollars in various cash accounts. Take the average a 6 times turn in a “moving economy” and you get nearly 6 years of 2019 GDP levels:
In a word – staggering.
√ So very good for the shock-absorbers that long-term investors will benefit from over the years to comeas the New Economy fuels up.
That’s it for Now…my fingers are tired.
Fear blocks out all elements of clear thinking. That is understandable but our job is to keep one focused on the pathway ahead – on the other side of the battle zone.
Along with the latest medical news, the quiet work being done at Pfizer, Merck, J&J and others – suggest that while it’s a tough and stressful game to play, this bat out of hell’s days are numbered.
Focus and patience my friends – focus and patience.
Most important as this rocket-ride gets fueled up over the summer:
Tech, science, speed, 5G, AI, robotics, space, human algos, life algos – all of these industries will become the “new industrials” of the years ahead.
√ Unsettling? Sure.
√ But – great for the US – as we are leaders in all of them.
√ This all sounds like a lot – but it is the basis, the tools, the driving forces of the map of the future ahead.
Be assured – like we say at the end of many of our videos – in the New Economy ahead….
Everything is going to change…and that is already underway
The 2020’s and 2030’s are set to be, structurally, a replay of the 1980’s and 1990’s…but on steroids.
Stay Safe and Healthy
Please remember – we are here to help as always.
Try very hard to reduce your stress – as we all work through this together.
Together is how our ancestors built this country.
Together is how we will conquer this enemy and carry us all into the New Age ahead.
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