First, Mark Your Calendars
We are having our mid-year Conference Call Update
Feel free to dial-in – invite a friend if you like!
Here is the data you will need:
August 12 – 4:00 EST
Dial-in Number: 1-712-770-5367
PIN Code: 455101 #
Stabling news – comparatively speaking – on the latest jobs data. The headline number is improving. The internals will be debated – mostly hammered by political flavor along the way for hours, and soon, we will be off to the next monster of the day.
Watching this data on an hourly or daily or weekly basis is simply a waste of time, energy and angst. Get this in our minds:
There is a MASSIVE shift going on in the world – WELL beyond the chatter and negatives of the virus. This virus merely sped up (rapidly) the shift that was unavoidable as the 2020’s and 2030’s unfold. It was coming anyway.
It? Millions of the jobs which have been displaced by the illness and the reaction to it – will not come back. Here is the deep, dark sadness of the reality behind this next wave of required retraining: (in advance – these are rough numbers) about 11 to 12,000,000 of the jobs which have been damaged by the virus shutdown represent about 4% of the consumer service/spending base.
In essence, this will be used as a massive restructuring effort – like 2009. Anything that was not required, nailed down or could be addressed through more advance spending on technology – did not come back.
Those unfortunately found in this channel will require retraining and adapting to the new normal ahead. By the way, this happens after every crisis and major setback.
One more thing about jobs. In the weekly jobless claim chatter, you often hear something like: “That is the X week of over a million jobless claims and that adds up to over 54 million since the virus began.”
It is VITAL you understand that if I file for a weekly jobless claim this week and next – I am counted both times. There are NOT 54 Million people out of jobs. There are currently 16.9MM unemployed – freshly updated in the jobs data just released. Please note that in the back of your mind.
Now, the Good News
That noted, here is the good news: investors remain – shall we say – a long, long way from bullish. Bullish ONLY arrives after lengthy rallies. Bullish ONLY arrives after VERY lengthy rallies when it is this deeply-seeded in the psyche of the crowd.
Throw in the vitriol, add the virus, sprinkle in the street riots and the burning of some city buildings – cap it off with media systems destined to stir up our collective feelings – oddly against each other – and you get a twisted, seriously fractured perspective. Very very sad – but worse, true.
Turn off the news. Don’t listen to the garbage. We – as a population of Americans – always recover, always find a way, always overcome. Now, we just have to wait.
And August – as a reminder – is the slowest, choppiest, most boring part of the year.
Some beneficial thoughts before you review the great sentiment data:
We live in a deflationary world – tremendous technological pressures will keep that underway. When that is unfolding, the media experts will tell you to be terrified of inflation. Gold, like cash levels are rising because people are terrified.
…read ’em and reap (over the long-term)
Once again — very bearish (which is excellent). There are VERY few times in history where bullish feelings were lower. Most important? None of those periods represented a long-term high. They were all long-term lows. That does not mean it changed in a day or week.
There is more as we dig into what it means when the “bad mojo” lasts this long:
New records in the string of negative sentiment. That is again – great news. Check the 6-month rolling average in the second image above. ONLY two other times in 33 YEARS, where it was lower. Each of those previous times – in retrospect – were “bet the ranch times” – and all that was required was this: you had to wait.
Waiting. The very worst part of being a stable, effective, long-term investor.
Waiting. The very kryptonite of the media coverage process.
Waiting. The killer for emotional reactions.
Waiting. Sadly, painfully, it works.
But even more good news awaits for those who can be patient when things are ugly:
Now – as noted above – it is August – stay patient. Choppy periods are normal. And by the way, if we DON’T get a setback in the normal summer swoon pattern, this market is much stronger than even we have noted. And, it is set to fool everyone.
Now, For The Weekend
Here is something you will not hear in the waves of negatives raining down on anyone willing to turn on the news…picture this:
A vaccine (or many versions of a vaccine) arrives in the next 6 months.
Confidence, slowly begins to return.
Business adapts to new ways of service and producing (it already is)
Margins increase (see below – we are already witnessing the early effects)
Profits in 2021 rise to levels above those expected in 2020 on less output
Unemployed get retrained
We all learn we can overcome together
The 10-year bond remains in the 170-190 P/E range
That list above, in the past – has never results in a down market for the long-term investor. For the daily or weekly trader and headline watcher, I am sorry, these notes won’t be of help.
Whatever you do – stop buying into the constant droning on of experts telling you we will not make it over, through and around this bat out of hell.
We always have – most importantly – together.
Yes friends – the world has changed -forever.
Every single thing will become new again – until that too needs to change, advance and adapt.
The 80’s and 90’s were the Boomer’s Decades.
The 2020’s and 2030’s ahead are the Generation Y Decades.
The rocket-ship driving that expansion will steadily become “everything tech” – including stuff we have not even dreamed of yet. The good news? The rocket is just fueling up on the launchpad outside.
It’s summer…enjoy with family and friends.
Stay healthy and safe.
We are here to help always, even if is just to talk.