Lost in the frenzied interest in covering the seemingly endless stream of “bad news” is the massively beneficial series of events unfolding in the medical pipeline. Extreme actions are being levied – bringing a firehose of progressive fight to the illness.
From the much-covered Malaria drug finding, to the off-label prescription allowances being permitted to protect the elderly, to the regulatory framework being relieved, the FDA is exhibiting strong offensive measures.
Last evening, Teva Labs began round-the-clock generation and shipping of some 6 million doses of the malaria drug seeming to have impact against the major parts of the illness.
Mylan labs is on top of the same elements with 1.5MM treatments in the pipeline. Between the two companies, they expect 10-12MM doses to be in US hospitals between now and month-end.
What other country on the planet could accomplish this? And when would one doubt that country’s ability to overcome? Foolishness.
And by the way, what we could have easily forgotten in the first social-media frenzied virus hysteria to ever hit mankind, no matter the event, no matter the hurdle, no matter the seeming catastrophe…we are all blessed to live in a country where the outcome has never been different.
Read that again:
No matter the event, no matter the hurdle, no matter the seeming catastrophe…the outcome has never been different…
The Next Playbook
Make no mistake – we are witnessing a generational opportunity forming in front of us.
The problem with generational opportunities?
They require actions over extended weeks and months which will first seem “foolish”, “unthinkable”, “hazardous”, “too risky” – and most obviously are often carried out by those “lacking even a remote understanding of just how bad it is….”
They also require a level of extreme patience, higher-level and simplified perspectives and a strong ability to be able to take in really, really bad data on the front-end and recognize that therein lies the opportunity.
And then – they require the viewpoint that just because these opportunities do not become profitable in the next 15-180 days, does not in any way erase or hinder the fact that they are opportunities nonetheless.
In the madness of cycles of emotions, the future is hidden during the hysteria and emotional cyclone released by a panic.
Everything is changing. Nothing will make sense for a bit. Wild storylines will unfold and new rules will be defined.
Value investing has never witnessed such windows of opportunity – but at the same time, it has likely never been more difficult to pursue that pathway. Patience will be called upon like never before.
Parallel to that, it is highly likely that we will see (like we saw in 2008-2009) a wide swathe of investors leave the market – never to return.
There is not a magical period ahead where “the future will be more clear.” There never has been – it just feels that way when prices rise.
√ Do we really believe we will never go on a cruise again?
√ Never stay at a hotel again?
√ Never want to have dinner out with family or friends again?
Extreme forces are at work. I also recognize that this will not be clear for sometime – and please do not take that as negative.
This will not be pretty – but opportunity never is pretty. Never.
In fact, the most extreme opportunities where we were required to sit and let things pass – were the ugliest, the most difficult and the least likely for the masses to bear.
The Most Important Fact –
I don’t care who you vote for, whether you feel CNN or FOX are nuts or how you feel about the impact of this virus, know this in your heart – and I mean deep in your soul:
√ We are the most fortunate people on Earth – and we should be grateful for same.
√ We live in a country that has more advantages that anyplace on the planet.
√ We care more about people, our neighbors and the good of mankind collectively, than any other people on Earth – even at our worst.
√ We overcome, we succeed, we find solutions, we build bridges, we get beyond our setbacks….even when we are tested to degrees we may have previously felt we could not elevate beyond.
Right now, today, as we speak- and as we live the next weeks and months – I am 1000% confident that you will see the very best of America, the best of who we all are…and the reasons we are the only place on Earth people are willing to die for – to get here.
√ And don’t ever forget that.
The Ugly Underbelly
Well beyond the story at hand – and for the ugly part of the story – here is the latest:
Global deaths for COVID-19 have now surpassed 10,300. The global deaths for the flu season regularly exceed 350,000 – 400,000. Deaths above the line item where the USA is listed above, cover all but roughly 1,050 of the deaths worldwide. Expect that to rise.
Of course – as one expects, more tests create more positive responses. Interestingly, tens of thousands have been found to be negative.
We are being told that all of the “total cases” will somehow turn into serious cases. That is still to be seen. It also presumes that the system working very hard to succeed in finding solutions, will a) do nothing to cut that trend off – and b) will not be successful in any step taken to stop that trend.
Those are fairly strong assumptions – no?
At some point, and this is just my feeling, it is important that we recognize something which at first seems unthinkable: percentages, case aspects, perceptions and references are being thrown around in wild fashion with a media frenzy unlike anything I have personally witnessed in my career. But I do think we need to collectively realize that some of this “stuff” is confusing to most, is likely to mislead many and that very often is later found out to be not entirely correct.
Take a breathe – count to a few thousand – and know that some how, some way, we will get through this and life will go on.
Some Whimsical Thoughts
Sometimes it helps to consider what could happen to the good side – and not focus your effort onjust the negatives.
In that light, consider this first: the world wants the US Dollar…the world expects our success:
Cash demand has never been higher. Panic has never been more clear. Demand for Liquidity has never been so quickly stressed and the system had done remarkably well.
For certain: lots of “data” will now surge into “the really bad news arena.” It will likely surge the same way panic has done. And then, a few months from now, it will plummet out of the “extremely bad news” category.
It is our belief that the outcome from this event will be as surprisingly positive as the the last 23 days have been negative. Understandably, the height with which that will be laughed off as absurd will be directly related to how much it comes to pass.
The point – this will pass and we will all succeed.
The Larger Investor Issue
All of 2020 is likely gone as it relates to relating “value” to any of the current “facts.”
Data will be quirky, highly disconnected and completely untethered from normal – no matter how much one tries to make them connect.
It will likely be a primary goal (read: requirement) for the long-term investor to view the future based on 2021-2022 scenarios and beyond. The year 2020 will have gyrations – driven by the obvious – which will make no sense, have no set of rules, have no historical comps and have little value long-term.
√ Importantly – The winning investor(s) down the road – will find the strength and the faith to look beyond the now wrecked 2020.
√ We can expect – even though it will look disjointed at times over the next few weeks – the US has powerful resources which will work together to combine efforts and bring those resources to buy the time needed to see our country get beyond this.
√ “Business” will look vastly different for the next 6 months. Some spots will be put into a coma by government action – by no actions of the business’ themselves. Others will be busier than they have ever been before.
This confusion – this seeming madness – this jolt of numbness – this feeling of catastrophe iswhat indeed defines the “Generational Opportunity” at hand.
√ That is why it is indeed so difficult to profit from it.
√ Large investors are buying. Buffett is buying. Icahn is buying.
Panic is easy to give in to.
Panic is a fog – like fear – inducing one to take the easy way out. It is easy to give in. The only problem is building wealth is never easy. Containing fear is a requirement to building wealth. Gaining over time is very difficult. Overcoming heartbreaking setbacks is difficult. Arriving at goals – through all of the setbacks in life and markets along the way – is difficult.
By the way – Tom Hanks and his wife are better and resting at home.
Thinking America is over – directly short-changes and completely erases or entirely overlooks – all that made America who we are to begin with….
Mark these words, print them or or put them in your file: That won’t happen.
As with each note sent, especially during the unique panic threat and global reaction to it we currently face – we are here to talk and help…
I hope this has served to provide a beneficial view of what after-effects can look like when we get past the current red light.