“Focus and simplicity…once you get there, you can move mountains.”
– Steve Jobs
The toughest part of investing is in the waiting.
The next couple weeks will be the busiest of the season. Odds are very high that this could include some chop. As stated repeatedly, long-term investors should welcome this as angst continues to build even as prices nip at new all-time highs.
The “altitude sickness” we often reference is alive and well – and the good news is there is no vaccine for it.
Soon we will see the “sell in May” chatter blanket the airwaves. We do every year – so don’t fret. We will also see the onset of summer before you know it. What could be different this year? Lots more movement than last year.
Just a hunch, but if we have more movement outside and less focus on the news, the media machine will have to turn the volume up as they will be starved for required attention. As such, I suspect we hear all sorts of bad news, along with triple and quadruple variants. India will become a larger story as their case numbers mount, much like Greece was years and years ago, when we were told they would topple the financial world as we knew it.
The beat goes on.
Stats – All Solid.
…read ’em and reap:
Note the expected earnings growth continues to expand. As each layer of the onion is peeled back, numbers “are better than expected.”
Remember – we will not see the “full benefit” of margin expansion underway until we see all 4 quarters of 2021. Numbers are pretty clear so far…and significantly beneficial for those who can be patient.
Interestingly, when you break it down into dollars and “sense”, the total dollar output of the current quarter will be the highest on record. Each quarter ahead will rise as well.
Note: By the time 2021 is complete and 2022 earnings is what we are focused on, a vast portion of the audience will just begin to realize that the $19 Trillion in the bank has kept them safe from only one thing: major rewards.
Expect bumps and potholes along the way.
Funny how mind-boggling technology and accomplishment can be so easily mistaken as “regular news.” If anything, this will show one how blinding fear-mongering can become.
Over the weekend, on Mars (LOL), NASA flew a drone helicopter the length of a football field. They did so from earth, via technology that will change the world.
Meanwhile, way back here closer to Earth, SpaceX docked a second crew orbiter at the Space Station after another “yawn” flawless launch procedure. Note the snapshots below.
It got almost no mainstream media coverage:
Think of this for a moment: 7:49 into launch sequence and the first stage is already returning to earth – with the second stage 100 miles up, and traveling a tad bit faster than 12,000 MPH
Two minutes later, the first stage has found its landing spot, in the middle of the ocean targeting a 50-foot circle on a ship rolling on the ocean’s surface.
And just 3 minutes later – securely in orbit – the second stage drifting away in the background as the Earth rolls by slowly below.
Stunning…and the future it will bring to us far faster than we can imagine?
The tectonic shifts ahead are massive.
Your head will be spinning at times because our minds will try very hard to make sense of it all – and the data being thrown at us will feel overwhelming.
Near-term, much will not make sense. In time, it all will.
We must find a way to control our patience and expectations. As stated before, much is often lost by reactions to short-term issues based on long-term plans and results.
In essence, investors want the lifetime benefit returns history repeatedly proves, but they want them today.
Let me remind you again of a scary thought:
Recall when I started in this industry, the DOW was 950.
In roughly 39 years the DOW has risen to roughly 34,000 – while every single terrible thing was happening along the way.
Assume we do only half as well in the next 39 years. The DOW will rest at roughly 500,000 in the 2060s.
The Bottom Line
New doubts, new fears and new monsters are all forming bricks in the new foundation being built for the next leg up as the spring dawns and the US builds into its “new normal.”
So what now? Cinch that belt tighter. And grab your popcorn.
The pace of change is going to be head-spinning – with plenty of gut-wrenching interruptions along the way.
Get comfortable with this process…it will be with us – forever:
Corrections and setbacks serve a role – they build your value for the next run – and we are unlikely to get very many of them in the years ahead.
Even when they hurt in the near-term, they create the gains of the long-term.
We must all remain diligent and prepared to always stand tall against the storms. Standing apart from the crowd permits one to always be ready to do what most will not.