“It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop.”
As you settle in for official “summer weekend number one”, I thought it might be interesting to take a look back to gain a sense of what’s ahead. I will keep this simple – with several pictures so those cold summer drinks can go down easier – and you my friend, can relax.
First, the bad stuff: more chop, more angst, more nervous periods, more corrections and more trade ranges are ahead. Count on it as much as you can count on the sun rising each morning. The good news about the bad news is this: there is nothing new in the previous sentence. We have been dealing with chop, angst, corrections, recessions, plunges and trade ranges since the beginning of time.
As you peer through the images below, it is very helpful to gain a sense of what it all means – from 50,000 feet. So, without further ado, let’s grab a cold drink and dig in.
Read ’em and Reap…
This is the Decade of the 80s:
This is the Decade of the 90s:
And this is the 2010s:
A couple things you will note about these “decades”:
a) they all sort of look the same, no? I mean if you squint.
b) they all included several “terrible events”, many of which the crowd – and the experts – were certain, all fell under the “Armageddon” category – or worse
c) ah yes, there is always a “c”, but in this case, I left the best for last: each decade saw the S&P 500 rise (roughly) at an average rate of 300% from start to finish
Yes, that number is correct – 300%.
Now here is what you have to let sink down into your soul. That place in your mind where it is buried in concrete, not to be rocked or swayed or jarred loose, no matter how many more Armageddon’s the experts spout off about. That place where it builds a calm level of confidence, no matter how strong the storms blow ahead:
The United States, better than any other developed nation on Earth, is entering a 25-30 year period of the strongest and most dynamic demographic forces ever witnessed.
People Make Markets®
Make sure you know exactly what that means here: www.trubeginnings.com
So What Mike?
Take another long sip of that cold drink and a deep breath.
Now, take a gander at those three decades above again – and remember “300%.”
And then, consider this as you take in a nice deep breath:
- That suggests we end the 2020s around 10,000 to 12,000 in the S&P 500
- That further suggests we end the 2030s around 36,000 to 42,000.
That’s the S&P 500 friends – not the DOW.
Think that’s a little nutty? Look back at those charts above and consider this:
In early January of 1980, had I told you that the S&P would end that decade above 300, a number never before even imagined, you would have certainly thought that was nutty.
In early January of 1990, had I told you that the S&P would end that decade above a mind-shattering 1,200, a number surely never before imagined, you would have certainly thought that was nutty.
In early January of 2010, had I told you that the S&P would end that decade above a mind-numbing (nearly) 3,300, a number surely never before imagined, you would have certainly thought that was nutty.
One last brain-twister:
Don’t forget that from January 1980 to the end of the 1990’s, we saw the S&P travel from roughly 100, to over 1,400.
We have stated repeatedly – and so far, we are ahead of that statement – that the 2020s and 2030s are the 1980s and 1990s – on steroids.
The year 2020 began with the S&P at about 3,200 give or take a few. The same math takes you to roughly 42,000 over the next 20 years.
We hope you enjoy your first weekend of Summer 2021.
Until we see you again, may your journey be grand and your legacy significant.