“A wise man adapts himself to circumstances, as water shapes itself to the vessel that contains it.”
― Chinese Proverb
We sure hope the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend was enjoyable, safe and blessed for you and yours. Collectively, our patience has taken us through quite a lot this year. There are still 28 days to roll in but as the snapshots below will show you, our theme continues to shine a light through the darkness ahead:
You cannot, will not, ever keep America down – period.
Before we get to the good stuff, let’s recognize a couple of realities. Prices had a very good November run. Odds are solid for a Santa Rally move as well. But it always helps to not get too excited – just as we suggest we don’t get too downtrodden on corrections. Let’s keep that in mind as we head into the first weeks of 2021.
Suffice it to say that I would not be at all surprised if January, after the next few days of normal heavy inflow on corporate retirement year-end cash inflows, turned in a red number for the month.
That action set-up would be particularly helpful I suspect in burning off the elevated confidence from short-term traders – and most gratefully, it would set the stage for all those terrible stories about how a down January “nearly insures” a down year LOL. That my friends, will be one of my Christmas wishes. Ok, I am sort of kidding.
Now, Let’s Check the Long-Term Benefits…
…as they most assuredly continue to unfold.
Read ’em and reap:
Those first two stats above portend good news continuing to build into the pipeline of America’s future expansion. Construction spend is increasing YOY – in the middle of a pandemic. So too is Manufacturing – with the steepest improvement ratings in years.
This fits nicely with the data from a few weeks ago where we highlighted record-setting backlogs and new orders on the manufacturing front.
Another strong engine remains housing, so let’s peer over the edge and check that latest wave heading right at us:
If you gaze through those bullet points above, there is not much to frown upon. Indeed, the trend is going nearly precisely where we have suggested as the first major sign of the growth waves for the 2020s and 2030s – we will run out of houses in many spots.
The wave of buyers is steady – growing and has a very long tail. Ten to fifteen years of buyers are steadily flowing our way. Builders better act on their “record setting confidence” from the last couple weeks or we will be out of houses for a lot longer than we need to be.
The funny part? Try as they might – the media still found a problem with this data….check it out for your comedy break this morning:
Note the process of deception in the “news” and why it causes so many to misunderstand just how good things will be over the next many years – even as we all live through the normal storms of the times ahead.
Check the wording – “Home Prices Fall as High Prices Take Their Toll….” Hmm, yes. Then in the key points, they really didn’t fall all that much as the YOY increases was over 20%, numbers that are unheard of in housing sales data. Then again “the toll” that the first headline suggests is somewhat confused I suppose by the “prompted bidding wars” in the second key point because? Well, we are running out of houses.
Ignore the negative and often twisted headlines friends. In many areas – certainly as it relates to your money – the media hype machine has slowly (almost imperceptibly) become a black mark unleashed on an unsuspecting public.
So don’t miss it — the avalanche of good news headed our way in the housing world and concurrent demand for same is all good news. Be prepared though for a bunch of bad news headlines about prices and concerns.
There is more…
The world adapts – we have to adapt as well. Yes, the pandemic caused brutal damage. Many lives have been affected – even more businesses have been hit by hard times.
But, in reaction to that, companies have maneuvered around the abyss and are climbing back up the mountain. Jobs will steadily flow back into that new adapted world – but not every job lost will be found to still be in place. Better ones will be there for most.
The bottom line? While many have been watching the scary headlines about all the businesses closing, they missed the data flow about all the businesses being launched anew:
Just one thought should come to mind and it goes something like this:
“Off the charts good for our future….as long as we remain patient.”
One Closing Item
I just thought this was funny. Most everyone knows that any media channel and all financial sites now have the red banners that flash across on “Bulletin” type news. You know why they are all red banners of course – your heart and mind, uncontrollably, send a little jolt into your system, marking your brain that this is bad news – and dangerous.
This was the headline from a few minutes ago after the market opened:
Sorry – I may be getting too old…or maybe I have seen way too many efforts to unnecessarily scare the crap out of the investor audience…but I thought that “Breaking News” was friggin’ hilarious.
Easy to trek that path? Ha ha – not on your life.
Building wealth over the long haul means following the current not the waves.
It means taking all the crap – and staying on your pathway through the good as well as perilous times.
Your emotions will not guide you through the storm. We all suffer those emotional weaknesses. Our job is to help clients not do battle with their greatest weaknesses. Don’t fret – we all have them. We just have to focus on this:
The underlying current of massive strength and benefit headed our way…
√ Give Thanks my friends…we will get through this because that is what we do.
√ The sun’s rays are just over the horizon.
√ While many will let fear and worry take them off their rightful rewarding pathway ahead, over the long haul, we can be confident that what is headed our way are our best decades.
The Holiday Season is here. We always wish you and yours the best of the Season.
Don’t fret as 2021 ebbs ever closer. You can bet there will be more than enough monsters to keep us all busy as the New Year dawns. Like all the other ones before, we will vanquish them together.
We will all…stand tall in the storm – and look forward, above the noise – not back and into the fog-shrouded dust heap of the past.
This rocket-ship ride is just getting fueled up for the trip – even now in the midst of all of this…we are set for collective good years together like none in history – no matter the politics of it all.
Long-term investors have learned that when all of the above ingredients are baked into the pie, the road ahead has been marked by a clear and resounding message:
…surprises to the upside.
It is our job to withstand the assured storms ahead and be disciplined in our planning for clients’ goals.
Sure, more choppy waters are likely as the future unfolds.
The media will do their best to knock you off your focus, grabbing at your fears, stabbing at the ghosts in the back of one’s mind and working to take you off your pathway.
Focus your mind on rising above this tension and angst instead – as we all succeed together…
It is set in stone with The Barbell Economy®…whether one buys into it – or not.
Pull your seatbelt tighter and hold on to your popcorn.
Exciting things are dead ahead.
Enjoy Your Entire Holiday Season
Please Stay Safe & Healthy
We are here to help always, even if just to talk.
Until we see you again, may your journey be grand – and your legacy significant.