The pace of speed in which the firetrucks are coming to the rescue in unmatched in history. Whether it be financial – or from a healthcare/treatment/vaccine perspective, the speed at which many, many very smart people are attacking this in historical.
Stay focused on that – it will build your faith that this too will be conquered in time.
This morning, Barry Sternlicht of Starwood was interviewed on CNBC. Last night, the Lt. Governor of Texas was interviewed on TV. It might be important to listen to more positive voices outside of the terror-filled reporting that is going on from most fronts – along with the ever-present ticker of death and case counts on screens across the nation.
Barry (you can see the interview clip here) brought up and interesting point we really do need to consider – hinting that we need to remain stable and reasonable in the attack on the enemy – which we will all defeat together:
He suggested that “if you and I had on all of our screens, every single day, a tracker of all deaths for the day in Traffic Accidents, Homicides, Cancer, Heart Attacks and the Flu, we would stop driving, ban cars, ban eating out and ban walking on the street.”
I know it is just me – but I took his point to mean that we need to reach a reasonable stage of being able to build a forceful pushback against the enemy.
Is there any good news?
Strangely enough – there is a lot of it!!!
An unprecedented and massive push for vaccines and treatments. One thousand patients are starting a treatment today in NYC. Last evening they covered a Doctor in NJ who had chosen to use the cocktail on 350 of his patients on his own – no illness, no hospital check-ins, no ventilators, no deaths in those 350 patients.
Unless he is a quack -we have to take this as good news.
We MUST DO THIS:
We must recognize that we are a resilient group. It’s how we survived everything in history – right up until now. It is how our ancestors overcame everything for us – the chain continues.
The human experience is the constant process of getting beyond setbacks, expanding farther than we might think we can – and conquering adversity.
Look what is happening all around us. Tesla buys 1200 ventilators from China last night and ships them to CA. The military is flying materials to everywhere it is needed. Honeywell is donating millions and millions of masks. Target finds boxes of masks in a Seattle store by accident and immediately ships them all to the hospitals.
Please: If you have ever listened to anything I have ever written in these notes over the years – please Do NOT make the mistake of only focusing on the bad news. Yes, it looks dire in some places. Yes the data will become uglier over the next few weeks – as testing floods the world and we peak out here.
However – this is KEY: It is imperative that we work together to help you see beyond this. These elements, these types of events – while horrible – are what mark the historical landscape of massive opportunity, massive shifts which have leveraged results as the human event of overcoming and expanding unfolds – even in the midst of the darkest spots emotionally.
They tend to unfold in parallel worlds – which is why it is always so hard to focus on it or see it if we allow the fog of fears to overwhelm.
We will come out on the other side of this valley far better than we currently perceive – and likely even better than how we went into it – on many fronts.
There is some other good news:
We have Bull Markets in:
Families watching TV at home together
Parents and kids riding bikes in the middle of the day
Dinners at home – around the table – together
Everyone is working to help everyone else wherever we can
In the end, that cannot be too terrible. The changes which will unfold in households and in people from across the land after this nearly complete government shutdown are unknowable at this stage – but it pays to look to the positives over the long haul.
And yes – I know that is blindingly difficult to do – and for sure looks like a completely idiotic theory at this stage of the breakdown.
Can We Twist The Prism??
If we all continue to look at this as some sort of economic failure, the horizon will remain dark indeed. Seeing this as an economic thing – is likely an error – and it makes you focus on directions that are not likely over time. Apocalyptic would be a compliment.
Instead, as one Fed Governor rightly suggested we consider over the weekend, it is truly vital that we recognize this is an “investment” in our future. This is not who did something wrong – or what should be “saved” and what “shouldn’t be saved.” It is not about debt and elements we can all fret over later.
If you like – you can read his comments here at this link .
It may help if we can begin to consider it in this manner. Then we all work together. Then we bring the forces to bear – so that we can change the discussion topics.
If I tell you that the Fed is pulling out all the plugs in order to save the human race – that may sound a lot different than arguing about whether or not American Airlines or Boeing, just as examples, should get a “loan.”
We cannot now spend time going back in time to, “Gosh, did every single decision you made from way back when – to now – meet with the circumstances we have now?” Of course they didn’t – it would be absurd if anyone had. Dissecting this data now is missing the point.
It is just an opinion – and an effort to maybe get our thinking and conversations going in a more positive direction. I bring this up because if we do not keep centered on reality, we will most assuredly do more damage to ourselves – causing only more repair later when it is finally over.
Together we will make this better. Together we can also make this much worse.
Our survival from this attack is simple but harsh – it requires going over and through it.
A bridge is the next thing that comes to ones mind – then the materials needed to build that bridge are required – then the expertise to build it and the responsibilities of collecting materials and then actually building it.
This is not permanent – thinking it is will force a far worse outcome.
Continuing to stress over this with a focus on the “business problem” will only churn one into more dark fears in your mind.
It is not about business – it is about a bridge to a time ahead when, shockingly, we will recover. The time before is stopped – a red light – full stop. Comparing today to “it” before is a waste of time – for reasons no one can control.
The time ahead is across the bridge.
We are witnessing lots of bridges getting built – in near-record time. Bridging for funding to keep employees employed. We are building bridges to fund companies large and small to get to the other side. We are building bridges – layer after layer – 24-hours-a-day.
These bridges are to one thing and one thing only – time for the medicines to work, time for the research to broaden and deepen on a vaccine – and time for the system to catch up and get its breath.
The darkness being discussed and the depression like mindset being grasped so quickly by so many overlooks almost all of history. It ignores and washes away everything we have ever hurdled or fixed. It stymies the idea that tens of thousands of really, really sharp people are working around-the-clock – all of whom are accustom to what we are all in need of – finding solutions.
End of story.
A bridge – a fix – it’s coming. Patience. Panic only creates a large whole to repair later when the benefits of who America is – always – comes to light.
Right this moment, the fog of fear, the mind-numbing anesthesia of panic – is doing what it always does – blinding too many to the good side of what is coming.
Some of the elements in therapy could start working in weeks – not months. We seem to have collectively decided there is no chance for that?
It is likely not a good idea to perceive total darkness.
The Next Playbook -Repeat
Make no mistake – we are witnessing a generational opportunity forming in front of us.
The problem with generational opportunities?
They require actions over extended weeks and months which will first seem “foolish”, “unthinkable”, “hazardous”, “too risky” – and most obviously are often carried out by those “lacking even a remote understanding of just how bad it is….”
They also require a level of extreme patience, higher-level and simplified perspectives and a strong ability to be able to take in really, really bad data on the front-end and recognize that therein lies the opportunity.
And then – they require the viewpoint that just because these opportunities do not become profitable in the next 15-180 days, does not in any way erase or hinder the fact that they are opportunities nonetheless.
In the madness of cycles of emotions, the future is hidden during the hysteria and emotional cyclone released by a panic.
Everything is changing. Nothing will make sense for a bit. Wild storylines will unfold and new rules will be defined.
Value investing has never witnessed such windows of opportunity – but at the same time, it has likely never been more difficult to pursue that pathway. Patience will be called upon like never before.
Parallel to that, it is highly likely that we will see (like we saw in 2008-2009) a wide swathe of investors leave the market – never to return.
The Most Important Fact -Repeat
I don’t care who you vote for, whether you feel CNN or FOX are nuts or how you feel about the impact of this virus, know this in your heart – and I mean deep in your soul:
√ We are the most fortunate people on Earth – and we should be grateful for same.
√ We live in a country that has more advantages that anyplace on the planet.
√ We care more about people, our neighbors and the good of mankind collectively, than any other people on Earth – even at our worst.
√ We overcome, we succeed, we find solutions, we build bridges, we get beyond our setbacks….even when we are tested to degrees we may have previously felt we could not elevate beyond.
Right now, today, as we speak- and as we live the next weeks and months – I am 1000% confident that you will see the very best of America, the best of who we all are…and the reasons we are the only place on Earth people are willing to die for – to get here.
And…please – try hard not to forget that.
The Larger Investor Issue
All of 2020 is likely gone as it relates to relating “value” to any of the current “facts.”
Data will be quirky, highly disconnected and completely untethered from normal – no matter how much one tries to make them connect.
It will likely be a primary goal (read: requirement) for the long-term investor to view the future based on 2021-2022 scenarios and beyond. The year 2020 will have gyrations – driven by the obvious – which will make no sense, have no set of rules, have no historical comps and have little value long-term.
√ Importantly – The winning investor(s) down the road – will find the strength and the faith to look beyond the now wrecked 2020.
√ We can expect – even though it will look disjointed at times over the next few weeks – the US has powerful resources which will work together to combine efforts and bring those resources to buy the time needed to see our country get beyond this.
√ “Business” will look vastly different for the next 6 months. Some spots will be put into a coma by government action – by no actions of the business’ themselves. Others will be busier than they have ever been before.
This confusion – this seeming madness – this jolt of numbness – this feeling of catastrophe iswhat indeed defines the “Generational Opportunity” at hand.
√ That is why it is indeed so difficult to profit from it.
√ Large investors are buying. Buffett is buying. Icahn is buying.
Panic is easy to give in to.
Panic is a fog – like fear – inducing one to take the easy way out. It is easy to give in. The only problem is building wealth is never easy. Containing fear is a requirement to building wealth. Gaining over time is very difficult. Overcoming heartbreaking setbacks is difficult. Arriving at goals – through all of the setbacks in life and markets along the way – is difficult.
By the way – Tom Hanks and his wife are better and resting at home.
Thinking America is over – directly short-changes and completely erases or entirely overlooks – all that made America who we are to begin with….
Mark these words, print them or or put them in your file: That won’t happen.
As with each note sent, especially during the unique panic threat and global reaction to it we currently face – we are here to talk and help…
I hope this has served to provide a beneficial view of what after-effects can look like when we get past the current red light.