“The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.”

~Charlie Munger

Good Morning,

Ah yes, for sure.  Another variant is lurking, catching the CDC’s attention just as the Delta variant caps out.  It’s called “mu” by officials and we can be assured more news is coming.

So is the end of summer 2021.

Such a great one for the record books but sort of a “ho-hum” from the audience.  Yea, so what seems to be the response.

Records were shattered everywhere.  It’s all because of the Fed they say.  This is the same crowd that said “it was all because of the Fed” as we came out of the Great Recession back in late 2009.  They said it was just QE.  They said is was DC.  They said it was only for the rich.  They said it was rigged.

They said all of that about 400% ago.

Expect the same reference 12 years from now…simple math…very, very difficult waiting.

Can you just imagine how much crap we are going to have to wade through in the next 400% upswing(s)?

Lots of problems, quite a few disasters, at least a couple which will qualify for “Armageddon” coverage and many more potholes just to screw things up at times.

Count on it.

And then?  Grin and bear it as they say.

Slowly but surely, every – thing – is – changing.  It is adapting.  If it is weak, it is being expensed from the system.  If it is slow, it is being replaced.  If it cannot handle a government imposed shutdown, it is gone…or will be soon.   If it is not digital, or headed in that direction, well, just wait a few minutes.  Like the Chicago weather, that too will change.

…and by the way…you will thank The Lord above as it unfolds.  The best of our lives is directly ahead of us.

It’s all in the waiting…no matter what “they say.”

Do Not Forget This:

 

To understand the dynamics of the pathway ahead:  check out www.trubeginnings.com

The short video is worth your time – feel free to revisit it each time you get frightened by some garbage headline.

Oh…and don’t forget this either:

The next 25 years are set to be the most dynamic and opportunistic in history.

The Fed won’t kill it.  Politics won’t kill it.  Strife won’t kill it.

Why?

People Make Markets®

By The Way

The markets, give or take a few points – have meandered up to new all-time highs, choppy as it has been.  There is all sorts of chatter about Tech tiring and ready to fall.  There is even more robust chatter about 2000 all over again.  Expect it to continue.  Expect the volume to increase.  Expect the fear-mongering to rise the higher prices move.

Expect potholes, corrections on more than enough upsetting elements ahead.  They always have been – and always will be – a part of the landscape investors must accept as normal.  Read that sentence whenever you get the feeling that this is supposed to be easy.

How is Q3 Coming Along?

The digitization of the world of business and services continues at a pace that can be confusing for many.  Just when you think the process of change may pause for a moment to let us catch our collective breath, it shifts into a higher gear.  The next Microsoft, SalesForce and Netflix are being birthed as we speak.  Right this moment they look like pipe dreams – maybe worse.  Ten years from now, some will grow to be monsters.

As the Q2 season came to a close the pace of expected increases for Q3 slowed as well – obviously.  But look what happened as Q1 and Q2 unfolded – the expectations for Q3 doubled!  Given the record – I’ll place my chips on the table – they are still short:

 

As Robert (one of our great Advisor Partners) likes to say, “I want to come back in my next life as a Wall Street analyst.  I can be wrong 90% of the time and still make 6-figures.”   Indeed.  LOL

There is more though:

The media coverage is going to want to scare you into thinking this chart is bad, with that big spike this year and then “just paltry 10% increases showing for the next two years….”  To which I would add this:  Check two years ago – and see how close they were in their prognostications for 2021.  I rest my case.

Here is the most uncomfortable thing to ever get your mind around as an investor – and by the way, it gets even more uncomfortable the higher prices rise:

Betting against the long-term outcome for America, its’ business structure, its’ economic might and capacity and/or its’ people…has always been a bad bet.

Embracing that as a continuing force is scary – and it is why so few gain all the market has to deliver.

Sentiment Updates

Well, some of the audience has become less terrified of the market in the last week or two.  As new highs have been crested, “sentiment” has improved a bit they will tell you.  But, most important, that $20 Trillion pile of “I am not so comfortable after all” cash sitting in the banking system tells you what consumers “really feel like.”

The point is this:  record highs, record earnings, record household wealth…and we only reach 44% “bullish” on the latest AAII data just out?  Find me a time in history that this has ever unfolded…for months on end.

Hint:  there is not time in history where it has…

All I can say is pray for the next setback.  It is likely to be quick, ugly, breathtaking and, yes, my hunch is it will bring that 44 back into the 20’s in less than 2 weeks.  Perfect.

Lay of the Land

As the country returns from a well-needed break and the summer comes to a close over the next week or two, don’t get too upset if we see a “dead spot” in anything important from a news perspective.  The quiet periods between earnings seasons have become rather quiet and meandering in a way.

The media will quickly tell us all that September is the worst month on record for markets.  After all, one of these days, this warning will work, no?  Seven months in a row of “up” is plenty to fret over and provides an entire wall of worry all to itself.  Maybe the September swoon will take us all the way back to, say, two weeks ago in prices…and then the race into 2022 and beyond.

In Closing

We can never forget that all of the blessings and freedoms we enjoy here in the US have never been free of cost.  May all those who have paid for that freedom with the ultimate sacrifice know from heaven above that we pray for them always and owe a debt that can never be repaid.

May you and yours enjoy the warm sunlight and the cool breezes of the remaining days of summer.  We thank you for allowing us to serve you in your life.

The good news?  Only 9 more months until the start of summer 2022.  Heck, that’s just three whole earnings seasons.

Simple.

 

Until we see you again, may your journey be grand

and your legacy significant.