Truvestments

“Remember that the stock market is manic-depressive.”

~ Warren Buffett

Good Morning,

It is very easy to forget the opening quote today during stressful, and short-term, disconnections in pricing and value perceived in markets. 

As often noted, there is no more powerful force than an emotional twitch which then triggers a domino effect and a series of reactions.  

This latest frenzy erupted from Fed minutes that were already three weeks old, further indicating the emotion-triggering nature of the selling and re-entry into the all-too-boring trade range, noted often now.  It also highlights the “altitude-sickness” we often reference.

Good Morning,

Well, sadly the extreme churn we had noted as the year ended for potential set-up for the earnings season launch for Q4 has been unfolding.

These near-term events are creating the trade range revisits, internal lashings, extreme weak hand liquidation and all the lower lows in sentiment that long-term investors want to see for the next foundation buildout – and the next trek up a very long mountain of growth ahead.

Before you read further, I caught this old quote over the weekend from Mr. James Grant who interviewed me years ago – it is about emotions – and their strength to literally blind the investor audience:

“Just because the tide is out, doesn’t mean there is

less water in the ocean.” – Seth Godin

Good Morning,

It is said, “the enemy comes like a roaring lion”, mocking our fears, stirring our emotions and causing stress.  As the markets launched through the Santa rally just days ago, all of that has been replaced and reversed due to something that markets have known for weeks.

Another Panic Attack…

“Never confuse activity and emotional noise with accomplishment….”

Good Morning,

Santa has left the building.

Ok, I am kidding (seriously) but I wanted to break the ice after that long line of trucks ran over the markets yesterday.  Trying to keep the mood light if possible.

Do keep this in mind as I will cover below:  The “reaction” to the Fed minutes is from a meeting three weeks ago – on which day the markets rallied for the same reasons.  This will be important to recall as we work through the normal “I better take my profits before the bear market starts” January 2022 issue.

I recall something my fried Kevin Nash said one time as he peered into the cameras while winning one of his WWE Championship belts.  Just after driving his opponent into the mat, he noted eloquently, “That’s going to leave a mark.”

“Wherever something good is trying to happen, something bad is trying to stop it.

The good news is we get to choose which voice we listen to in the process…”

Good Morning,

First, we hope this Holiday Season has been – and will continue to be – a blessed, safe, healthy and joyous one for you and yours.  I have purposely tried not to pepper you with morning notes for the last week or so in order to not interrupt the fun. LOL

Know this:  our best years are ahead!

…and we wish you the best Blessings of the New Year just ahead.

As always, we will be here to serve you and guide along the pathway ahead with grateful hearts for the opportunity to be of value to you.

Good Afternoon,

This is going to sound off to some – maybe – but I can always tell when the crowd is getting too close to the flame so to speak.  The noise picks up.  The “experts” shout even louder. The complex scenarios being hurtled about become more “assured” and set in stone as the fear rises everywhere – even for the professionals.

Good Afternoon,

Hoping all the blessings of the Holidays are setting in for you and yours.

It will get pretty lazy over the next few days as the Holiday Haze washes over the landscape ahead.

Just a few things to keep in the back of your mind as markets chop through the Omicron, boosters, game shutdowns, school closings, mask on, mask off – and ugly politics – phase we are trekking through:

“Widespread fear is your friend as an investor, because it serves up bargain purchases.”

~ Warren Buffett

Good Morning,

In the middle of all the ridiculous levels of chatter about what you should fear next, the roller-coaster ride of the last few weeks has been a doozy.   Most assuredly the experts cannot seem to agree on whether we should fear debt, the Fed, Omicron, Delta, China, Russia, interest rates or supply chains but they are nearly in complete agreement on this:

It’s the end of the world – again – and you are supposed to be terrified.

As any long-time reader knows, I cannot stand watching values dwindle in the near-term during required windows like this in markets.  I hate it more than you know.  But I have also learned this – when I feel this thing in my gut, I use it as my best contrary indicator.

Given so much rises and falls on the sentiment and psychology of the times, it is VITAL that we understand what is collectively unfolding around us – even as the generational demographic forces are surging across the board.

“You will find only what you bring in…”

~ Yoda

Good Morning.

Ah yes, Inflation.  It is here to stay, to destroy our world, to end all the good things, to wipe out the horizon ahead, to tarnish the rest of our lives – forever.  Besides all of the ridiculous items being expressed by new experts in the press, it is somewhat comical that just a few quarters ago, these same experts howled at the moon about how the Fed was utterly failing at keeping us from the deflationary pressures no one wanted.  The audience is like children screaming for a new toy as soon as they get bored.

But all the “toys” they want to focus on have a common theme:  they are bad outcomes, dark shadows in the mist and scary thoughts about the future.  Imagine for a moment that we are at the highest levels of so many areas in life which are good – never before seen benefits mind you – and yet…fear, angst, new monster aplenty and dire outlooks.  Like a dark cloud, they seem to follow us all around, if we pay attention to the wrong elements.