Truvestments

“Individuals who cannot master their emotions are

ill-suited to profit from the investment process.”

~ Benjamin Graham

Good Morning,

Another week – another failed Armageddon.

An idea to share today:  stop watching the garbage called “financial news.”

Seriously.  During the summer haze, it is a great time to learn what helps and what does not help.  Ask yourself this question.  Which “it’s the end of the financial and economic world as we know it” story has been correct over, say, the last 40 years?  And when I say “correct”, I mean which thing that we were told – for certain, by a parade of experts – was indeed the end of the world, with no recovery and new highs ahead.

The answer is – none.  Not a single one was correct for more than a short window of time.  That is a pretty bad record.  As such, why in the world would we keep reacting to it?

“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow.

If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.”

— Paul Samuelson

Good Afternoon,

This week has surely done its job of testing everyone’s patience.  Prices “plunged”, according to CNBC, on Monday – and the day was filled with experts giving all parties lots of reasons for “why it happened.”  Two days later, those reasons seem to have mysteriously been overridden by something else.

As soon as they can figure out how markets returning, basically, to where we started the week is also bad for you – then more will be shared by these experts.

Our Thoughts?

A review of the June morning notes will show that July is almost always choppy after a “big up” in the first half of a year.  This was covered before the Delta variant became the newest reason we are told Covid will never end.  Now, Delta V captures most of the headlines describing why everything “is bad.”

Our message for investors is a little different – it isn’t all bad.

“Never bet on the end of the world, It only happens once.”

~Anonymous

Good Morning,

I owe you an apology – I didn’t get a morning note out all last week due to travel, so I will catch up today.

It wasn’t because little was going on – it was just nothing really important nor anything we hadn’t already covered.

Economic data – better.  Inflation – another false monster.  Earnings – overwhelming analysts.  Delta – the latest scare tactic.

By the way, the 10-year is down to 1.225% this morning – or 81 times earnings.

The title today – “Peak” – will be heard a whole bunch in the next few weeks as earnings flood in.  We recently pointed out that numbers are going to get so shockingly good, that we will likely see “selling the news” even more.  Last week proved that out as well.

“My favorite things in life don’t cost any money.

It’s really clear that the most precious resource we all have is time.”

– Steve Jobs

Good Morning,

The excuse of the day for the red ink and the “sudden” change of direction is apparently related to bond yields.  The experts are all over the media this morning.  They are telling you that it is bad news that rates are falling.  There is a myriad of reasons they are attaching to this “fall” as the triggers of what we should fear next.

“Boy, can you make folks feel what you feel inside?
‘Cause if you’re big star bound let me warn ya, it’s a long, hard ride”

“The Ride” – David Allan Coe

Good Morning,

Thankfully, we still have most of the summer ahead of us.  Comeback records were set on travel this past week.  Expect more – so long as we can take on the media battle with the Delta variant capturing more and more headlines.  There is even a newer one capturing headlines this past weekend.  It is the Lambda variant.  Follow your doctors orders of course – always – but as promised, we can expect that volume to keep getting higher – as more and more head to the beach.  We covered this last week as a likely driver of chop (read: rest) for markets in July.

Idea of benefit:  Focus on the beach  : )

I like today’s quote above.  It comes from a song called “The Ride” and that last line is really what drives home the point.  I have learned a few things in the almost 39 years I have been blessed to serve clients in this profession.  The line in the song sticks with me each time I hear it.  Why?  It seems to me that anything that you will appreciate accomplishing in life, anything that will mean a great deal to you and yours – is, indeed, a long, hard ride.

“Have great hopes and dare to go all out for them. Have great dreams and dare to live them.

Have tremendous expectations and believe in them.”

Norman Vincent Peale

Good Afternoon,

Just a quick note to send you and yours our best wishes for a wonderful, safe, relaxing and Happy 4th of July weekend!

Take in the summer and enjoy much time with family and friends.

When I get a free moment, I am going to ponder how far we have come from a year ago.  What a trip is has been for sure.

I am going to remember how confusing and stressful those first few weeks of the pandemic were.  I am going think back, yes – but only for a brief moment.

I will do so to be excited about how far we have come – together.  I am going to feel pride in how all of us in this country worked together, through thick and thin, to overcome a compelling monster.

As I peer through the haze of the summer ahead and patiently await the next acceleration phase as summer comes to a close, these thoughts will march forth, overcoming all the senseless chatter we must endure:

No matter how hard you punch America, she comes back stronger than before.

No matter what negative force is unleashed upon us, we fight hard to recover and move to higher ground as a team.

No matter how stressful it seems at times – we never, ever – ever – give up.

“The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones.”

– John Maynard Keynes

Good Morning,

Well, there you go – the fastest 6 months I can recall in my entire life.  Good Lord time is flying.  Heck, the monsters are even out of breath and seemingly, in recent weeks anyway, cannot keep up with the media calling them on stage for the latest scare.  Shortly, it should be a fun reporting season watching them try to explain away this brand new economy, rapidly expanding earnings and margins – and very young bull market.

Just recall, the new themes are pretty simple:  if it is good, we are not supposed to believe it.  If it is profitable, then you just don’t understand how bad it is yet.  If it goes up in value more than a smidge – it is a bubble and is set to crash down on you – soon.

And – if it keeps going up, well, Armageddon will come knocking.

“Games are won by players who focus on the playing field –- not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard.”
― Warren Buffett

Good Morning,

As the summer wears down its’ hazy pathway, the regularly-feared monsters will come and go.  Interest rates, inflation, oil costs, housing shortages, variants and vaccine reactions will come and go.  Heck, you can be assured that even good news will be cloaked as bad news.  I’ll give you an example:

“Lines create significant delays for security checkpoints as airports overwhelmed with return to summer travel.”

I don’t know where we collectively decided that we would feed a system that would deliver us strife and stress all the time – but we did.  You’d be amazed how well you feel the world is doing when you stop watching the news feed.   I digress.

The Numbers

I’ll keep it short this week as many will be working all week to plan on leaving work for the second long weekend of the summer.  The July 4th break likely starts about mid-week for most – LOL.  If you fall into that category, we wish you the best of the long summer weekend with family and friends.

Continuing their climb up the mountain, earnings numbers look solid.  It is all somewhat imaginary as one can be assured, the numbers will come up short overall as analysts continue their tepid acceptance that the pandemic completely reshaped the economy’s operations.  Margins are set to surprise as that onion is peeled.

“Fear incites human action far more urgently than does the impressive weight of historical evidence.”

-Jeremy Siegel

Good Morning,

The title today is all about sentiment.  It is as such because I feel this will be vital as the summer haze seeps deeper and deeper into our minds.  Heck, after last year’s pandemic shutdown summer, by mid-August this year, you may never want to go back to work.

The point?  Read the quote above one more time.  Should we expect chop here and there during the summer months?  You bet.  Indeed, we should be excited if we are lucky enough to get a gut-churning mini-meltdown.  Pray for it – and then embrace it as a launch pad for a significant run afterward.