Category: Morning Note

“Face reality as it is, not as it was or as you wish it to be.”

– Jack Welch

Good Morning,

Yawn.  That was the sensation after the Fed statement yesterday.  I was laughing a bit as I watched the myriad of reporters questioning Fed Chair Powell after the statement was released.  One could almost feel the distinct letdown as each question failed to create the “zinger” everyone seemed to be hoping for in his responses.  You know, the one where Powell makes some big error and the narrative can shift to the “see, we told you we were all knowing and that he has been hiding this monster all along…”

I really loved this quick headline afterward as markets “plunged” 47 basis points lower – 48 hours after setting all-time-new-highs:

“Gold, Gold Miners turn red after Fed raises inflation expectations…”

“It’s not so important who starts the game, but who finished it.”

– John Wooden

Good Morning,

What a summer, huh?  I mean – wow.  Stunning, enlightening, stressful, boring, edgy.  Oh wait, it’s only two weeks old.  Sorry – early.

Ok, I am kidding.  Here is what I am not kidding about:  Traders lose – almost all of the time.  The effort to interact with a myriad of stimuli, in a reactive, emotional state, against some of the best in the business – with A.I. machines and algorithms to boot – is not a game I choose to play.  Neither should you.

Choppy may be the only productive theme for the next several weeks.  As covered repeatedly, the long-term is set to surprise many – for a long time – to the upside. However, it is summer – and I suspect we need to recognize that for what it is in the near-term. The only exciting thing – unless that media builds another monster for us in the coming weeks (which it easily could) – is that by the 20th of July, the Q2 earnings season will have begun.  Each week that goes by, the YOY increase in expectations for those numbers rises

As you settle in for official “summer weekend number one”, I thought it might be interesting to take a look back to gain a sense of what’s ahead.  I will keep this simple – with several pictures so those cold summer drinks can go down easier – and you my friend, can relax.

First, the bad stuff:  more chop, more angst, more nervous periods, more corrections and more trade ranges are ahead.  Count on it as much as you can count on the sun rising each morning.   The good news about the bad news is this:  there is nothing new in the previous sentence.  We have been dealing with chop, angst, corrections, recessions, plunges and trade ranges since the beginning of time.

While everyone was giving thanks to those who have protected the foundations of our freedoms, every indication highlights that there was much movement around the country, unlike last year at this time.

This week, like all previous Memorial Day weekend build-up weeks, likely sees a slowing level of volume coming into the markets.  Don’t fret – it is normal.  Volume will continue to fall into June in all likelihood

Good Morning, We have covered this now for a bit.  Indeed, the trade range often mentioned is doing almost exactly what you want it to do.  It is making the…

Good Morning, The immense level of fear, seemingly missing the bigger picture unfolding in front of us, is rising as we type.  The indications of this are pretty much across…

Good Morning, Ok, inhale slowly – count 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, …. 125, exhale slowly – count 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8,…

Good Morning, Well, fear is rising – big time – and all because of the same choppy price range we have been in for weeks.  It is easy to overlook,…