Category: Morning Note

“What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history.” ~Warren Buffett   Good Morning, Don’t mind me – that noise you hear in the background is me…

It is that wonderful time of year – a time for family and friends.   We send our very best wishes to you and yours for the highest of blessings this…

“Those who are not grateful soon begin to complain of everything.”

– Thomas Merton

Good Morning.

Once again, sending along heartfelt wishes to you and yours for the very best of blessings on this Thanksgiving Holiday.  God knows, we all deserve it given the last nearly 24 months of confusion.  We send our best to you and again thank you for the opportunity to be of service.

Know that as 2022 beckons, we will work consistently for your interests.  We are grateful for the opportunity – and as always, patience will be the toughest part of the game as we let what is unfolding all around us continue to expand the horizon ahead.

“The investor’s chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself”

~Benjamin Graham

Good Morning!

Before we start into the boring stuff, we want to send our heartfelt wishes to you and yours for the most blessed and enjoyable Holiday Season.  Kicking off this week with Thanksgiving, we want to give thanks to you – as always – for the opportunity to be of service to you.  We are always extremely grateful and enjoy this time of year because we get to tell you that again LOL.

Have a fantastic week with Family and Friends!

And now…to the boring stuff

I know it’s boring because we keep having to tell how records are being set.  Yes, there will be a pause in here somewhere.  Yes, there will be a short window in the pathway ahead where you will swear market investments stink.  It will all be a required part of the pathway that is laid out in front of us all.  Like it or not, our economy is going to running at full tilt for an awfully long time.

“The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.”

~Warren Buffett

Good Morning,

Closing out the Q3 earnings season has become a bit boring in its coverage.  My sense of things?  The media could find few monsters in a string of reports that consistently beat estimates, even as the “inflation war” rages on.  I suppose they realized the “scary stuff” needed to come from somewhere else, hence – yet another record-setting earnings season is quietly put to rest.

Expect more records – with a pause here and there along the way.

How do you say thanks for the things they have done? What words would sufficiently honor their bravery and sacrifice? What letter could we write to thank them for stepping…

Good Morning,

Earnings season is coming to a close over the next 8-10 days, with about 89% of S&P 500 companies already reporting.

More records?  You bet:

Those reported have seen overall net earnings rise by over 42% on 18% higher revenues.  In that list, 80% are beating earnings expected and 78% are beating revenues.  Almost 65% are beating both showing how incredibly far behind Wall Street analysts remain.  Indeed, the overall annual earnings growth expected is still rising

Good Afternoon,

Something better than you think is headed our way.

I have spent most of my career being told, often, that I wear rose-colored glasses.

I get it – it’s a nice way of saying that I clearly don’t realize how bad things are “out there.”

Though there is nothing I can specifically “show” you, I can state that this rose-colored glasses “chatter” tends to get much louder just before something very surprising happens – to the upside.

…and friends, it is getting very loud.

“Investing was never supposed to be fun – nor watched on a daily basis.”

Good Morning,

Yes – for sure – the markets packed above resistance briefly last week and have stepped right back into the upper trade range again.  Not yet ready to leave base camp, so to speak – one would prefer to see one more dose of setbacks and a last test of this trade range.

Yesterday’s market action at the upper reaches of resistance was weak most of the day, hinting that a weak close was in the offing.  Indeed, every last hour of the day this week has seen selling, often a sign that traders are lightening up.  Triggering a few machine programs here and there should not come as a surprise for anyone here.

Good Afternoon,

The title today of your morning note is designed to prove a point.  “Altitude sickness” is real in markets.  The higher they go, the scarier they feel and the worse our emotional response to an errant headline.  New all time highs lead to knee-jerk reactions on any bad news.

Shoot first and ask questions later becomes the name of the game.