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The Morning Note


Over the years, clients have come to greatly appreciate the insights passed along in the morning notes. They serve to light the pathway ahead – especially during the storms.

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Too Sentiment-al

“Fear incites human action far more urgently than does the impressive weight of historical evidence.”

-Jeremy Siegel

Good Morning,

The title today is all about sentiment.  It is as such because I feel this will be vital as the summer haze seeps deeper and deeper into our minds.  Heck, after last year’s pandemic shutdown summer, by mid-August this year, you may never want to go back to work.

The point?  Read the quote above one more time.  Should we expect chop here and there during the summer months?  You bet.  Indeed, we should be excited if we are lucky enough to get a gut-churning mini-meltdown.  Pray for it – and then embrace it as a launch pad for a significant run afterward.

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Chop and Then – Boom

“Face reality as it is, not as it was or as you wish it to be.”

– Jack Welch

Good Morning,

Yawn.  That was the sensation after the Fed statement yesterday.  I was laughing a bit as I watched the myriad of reporters questioning Fed Chair Powell after the statement was released.  One could almost feel the distinct letdown as each question failed to create the “zinger” everyone seemed to be hoping for in his responses.  You know, the one where Powell makes some big error and the narrative can shift to the “see, we told you we were all knowing and that he has been hiding this monster all along…”

I really loved this quick headline afterward as markets “plunged” 47 basis points lower – 48 hours after setting all-time-new-highs:

“Gold, Gold Miners turn red after Fed raises inflation expectations…”

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Traders Lose

“It’s not so important who starts the game, but who finished it.”

– John Wooden

Good Morning,

What a summer, huh?  I mean – wow.  Stunning, enlightening, stressful, boring, edgy.  Oh wait, it’s only two weeks old.  Sorry – early.

Ok, I am kidding.  Here is what I am not kidding about:  Traders lose – almost all of the time.  The effort to interact with a myriad of stimuli, in a reactive, emotional state, against some of the best in the business – with A.I. machines and algorithms to boot – is not a game I choose to play.  Neither should you.

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Slow and Hazy

Choppy may be the only productive theme for the next several weeks.  As covered repeatedly, the long-term is set to surprise many – for a long time – to the upside. However, it is summer – and I suspect we need to recognize that for what it is in the near-term. The only exciting thing – unless that media builds another monster for us in the coming weeks (which it easily could) – is that by the 20th of July, the Q2 earnings season will have begun.  Each week that goes by, the YOY increase in expectations for those numbers rises

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Much Higher

As you settle in for official “summer weekend number one”, I thought it might be interesting to take a look back to gain a sense of what’s ahead.  I will keep this simple – with several pictures so those cold summer drinks can go down easier – and you my friend, can relax.

First, the bad stuff:  more chop, more angst, more nervous periods, more corrections and more trade ranges are ahead.  Count on it as much as you can count on the sun rising each morning.   The good news about the bad news is this:  there is nothing new in the previous sentence.  We have been dealing with chop, angst, corrections, recessions, plunges and trade ranges since the beginning of time.

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Running Away

While everyone was giving thanks to those who have protected the foundations of our freedoms, every indication highlights that there was much movement around the country, unlike last year at this time.

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From The Top Down

This week, like all previous Memorial Day weekend build-up weeks, likely sees a slowing level of volume coming into the markets.  Don’t fret – it is normal.  Volume will continue to fall into June in all likelihood

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Edge of The Haze

Good Morning, We have covered this now for a bit.  Indeed, the trade range often mentioned is doing almost exactly what you want it to do.  It is making the…

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      Learn more about the Morning Note

      The purpose behind our “Morning Note” is different than typical newsletters.

      We don’t get lost in Wall Street jargon. Why? After nearly 40 years, we can tell you that “jargon” is what causes most of the mistakes investors make over time.

      The Morning Note helps our clients see through the constant fog driven by the media process. That process focuses on things which will – and are often intended – to scare you. If you are not scared, you won’t pay attention to what they say; if you don’t pay attention to what they say, they lose ad revenue. Simply put: it’s a business model – not news.

      Instead we focus on what we like to call “bread crumbs” along your pathway to your goals. You are your own “index” – not the S&P 500. Your goals, your interests and you and your families staying on your course. That requires a vastly more productive viewpoint. It requires we stand tall in the storms. It requires we remain patient and disciplined, while focusing on the long-term horizon ahead. The “bread crumbs” are designed to deliver your most valuable outcome – staying on your course. Many battles, setbacks and disasters await. Always have – always will.

      The theme of the Morning Note will allow one to always recognize this over-rising fact: When we started in this business, the DOW hovered at 950. It is well above that today. And – most important – every single thing we have been taught to be terrified of – has already unfolded, all while our country built unprecedented wealth. So one has two choices – fear today or be confident of tomorrow. The history of the United States is clear. We overcome, we build, we learn, we expand, we succeed, we lead. Sure, we mess it up at times – but know this: the data is clear that our best years are dead ahead.